Preliminary results for Germany’s national elections, released by the Federal Returning Officer in Berlin on Monday, have confirmed a significant shift to the right. The nominally center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) formerly led by Angela Merkel emerged as the leading party, securing 28.5 percent of the vote and 208 seats in the 630-seat parliament. The populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) made historic gains, doubling its vote share from 10.4 percent in 2021 to 20.8 percent and increasing its seats from 83 to a provisional 152—the best result in the party’s history.
Despite a theoretical majority with the AfD, it remains unlikely the CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, will form a coalition with them. The CDU is part of a long-standing effort by establishment political parties to marginalize the AfD. Instead, a so-called “grand coalition” government alongside left-wing parties, such as the Social Democrats led by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, is far more likely.
The liberal Free Democrats (FDP), who were part of the last governing coalition, failed to meet the required five percent threshold to enter parliament, losing all of their 91 seats. The newly-founded left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) also failed to win any seats.
Prior the to German elections, U.S. President J.D. Vance argued the German establishment should not shut out the AfD, given its level of popularity. “It’s really about censorship and about migration, about this fear that President Trump and I have, that European leaders are kind of terrified of their own people,” he said.
Distribution of seats in next Bundestag based on the preliminary final result. pic.twitter.com/NGlWpb6R9t
— German Embassy London (@GermanEmbassy) February 24, 2025
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